Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 33Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Citypark
St. Louis City
4th · 51 pts0–1FULL TIME
San Diego
13th · 38 pts58% St.
19% Draw
22% San
OUR PICK
St. Louis City to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.72
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.42
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.72X5.1524.45
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.46NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
69%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
St. Louis CitySan Diego1.8Goals per game1.7
1.5Conceded per game1.9
1.55Points per game1.15
42%Win rate27%
10Goal difference-5
1Form, last 5 (pts)6
St. Louis City form
LLLDLH San Diego0–1
H Portland Timbers2–3
A Real Salt Lake3–0
A Columbus Crew0–0
A Minnesota United FC3–2
San Diego form
WLDDDA St. Louis City0–1
A Vancouver Whitecaps4–1
H Seattle Sounders2–2
A Los Angeles Galaxy2–2
H Houston Dynamo3–3
Head to head
0
St.
1
Draw
3
San
Oct 2026St. Louis City – San Diego0–1
Mar 2026San Diego – St. Louis City2–0
May 2025St. Louis City – San Diego1–2
Mar 2025San Diego – St. Louis City0–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes St. Louis City clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.35 for St. Louis City, 1.42 for San Diego), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
St. Louis City sit 4th on 51 points; San Diego are 13th on 38.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.