Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 32Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Citypark
St. Louis City
4th · 51 pts2–3FULL TIME
Portland Timbers
11th · 40 pts57% St.
20% Draw
23% Portland
OUR PICK
St. Louis City to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.36
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.76X4.9424.33
Goals 2.5Over1.45Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
St. Louis CityPortland Timbers1.8Goals per game1.8
1.5Conceded per game1.9
1.55Points per game1.25
42%Win rate34%
10Goal difference-3
1Form, last 5 (pts)8
St. Louis City form
LLLDLH San Diego0–1
H Portland Timbers2–3
A Real Salt Lake3–0
A Columbus Crew0–0
A Minnesota United FC3–2
Portland Timbers form
WWWDLH Houston Dynamo1–0
A St. Louis City2–3
H Charlotte3–2
H Colorado Rapids0–0
A Los Angeles Galaxy2–0
Head to head
1
St.
2
Draw
2
Portland
Oct 2026St. Louis City – Portland Timbers2–3
Sept 2026Portland Timbers – St. Louis City2–2
Jul 2025St. Louis City – Portland Timbers2–1
Jun 2025Portland Timbers – St. Louis City2–1
Aug 2024Portland Timbers – St. Louis City4–4
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes St. Louis City clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.21 for St. Louis City, 1.36 for Portland Timbers), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
St. Louis City sit 4th on 51 points; Portland Timbers are 11th on 40.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.