Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 28Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Citypark
St. Louis City
4th · 51 pts6–2FULL TIME
Los Angeles Galaxy
7th · 44 pts50% St.
24% Draw
26% Los
OUR PICK
St. Louis City to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.19
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.00X4.2223.81
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
St. Louis CityLos Angeles Galaxy1.8Goals per game1.5
1.5Conceded per game1.7
1.55Points per game1.33
42%Win rate33%
10Goal difference-6
1Form, last 5 (pts)8
St. Louis City form
LLLDLH San Diego0–1
H Portland Timbers2–3
A Real Salt Lake3–0
A Columbus Crew0–0
A Minnesota United FC3–2
Los Angeles Galaxy form
WDDWLH Austin4–1
A Los Angeles FC2–2
H San Diego2–2
H Portland Timbers2–0
A St. Louis City6–2
Head to head
3
St.
1
Draw
1
Los
Oct 2026St. Louis City – Los Angeles Galaxy6–2
Jul 2026Los Angeles Galaxy – St. Louis City1–3
Feb 2026Los Angeles Galaxy – St. Louis City3–0
Jun 2025St. Louis City – Los Angeles Galaxy3–3
Mar 2025Los Angeles Galaxy – St. Louis City0–3
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps32+3458
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders32+143
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes St. Louis City slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.73 for St. Louis City, 1.19 for Los Angeles Galaxy), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
St. Louis City sit 4th on 51 points; Los Angeles Galaxy are 7th on 44.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.