Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 10Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9th · 12 pts1–0FULL TIME
Holstein Kiel
17th · 8 pts39% SpVgg
26% Draw
34% Holstein
OUR PICK
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.54
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.54X3.7922.92
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
SpVgg Greuther FürthHolstein Kiel1.3Goals per game1.0
1.6Conceded per game1.2
1.20Points per game0.80
30%Win rate10%
-3Goal difference-2
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth form
WLWLLH Holstein Kiel1–0
A VfL Osnabrück3–0
H Eintracht Braunschweig2–0
A Hertha BSC2–1
A VfB Stuttgart5–0
Holstein Kiel form
LDWDLA SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–0
H 1899 Hoffenheim1–1
H Dynamo Dresden3–0
H Hertha BSC0–0
A Eintracht Braunschweig1–0
Head to head
3
SpVgg
0
Draw
2
Holstein
Nov 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Holstein Kiel1–0
Jan 2026Holstein Kiel – SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–2
Aug 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Holstein Kiel0–2
Jan 2024SpVgg Greuther Furth – Holstein Kiel2–1
Aug 2023Holstein Kiel – SpVgg Greuther Furth2–1
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39%, the draw 26%, Holstein Kiel 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.35 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.24 for Holstein Kiel), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit 9th on 12 points; Holstein Kiel are 17th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.