Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
62%
NGANPFL · Matchday 12Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Mobolaji Johnson Arena
Sporting Lagos
11th · 15 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Rivers United
1st · 18 pts24% Sporting
29% Draw
47% Rivers
OUR PICK
Rivers United to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.26
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.13X3.4322.14
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.53
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.67
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.67
NG
60%
Double chance@1.32
X2
76%
Season stats
Sporting LagosRivers United1.4Goals per game1.4
1.3Conceded per game0.5
1.50Points per game1.64
40%Win rate36%
1Goal difference10
8Form, last 5 (pts)6
Sporting Lagos form
LWWDDA Katsina United2–1
A Plateau United2–3
H Bendel Insurance2–1
A Kano Pillars1–1
H Ikorodu City0–0
Rivers United form
DLDDWH Enugu Rangers1–1
A Bendel Insurance2–1
H Barau FC0–0
A Abia Warriors0–0
H Ikorodu City2–0
Head to head
1
Sporting
0
Draw
1
Rivers
May 2024Rivers United – Sporting Lagos4–1
Feb 2024Sporting Lagos – Rivers United1–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Rivers United slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.82 for Sporting Lagos, 1.26 for Rivers United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting Lagos sit 11th on 15 points; Rivers United are 1st on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.