Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Children's Mercy Park
Sporting Kansas City
15th · 23 pts1–3FULL TIME
Real Salt Lake
11th · 42 pts26% Sporting
22% Draw
52% Real
OUR PICK
Real Salt Lake to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.95
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.80X4.5421.94
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt Lake1.2Goals per game1.5
2.5Conceded per game1.5
0.70Points per game1.27
18%Win rate36%
-42Goal difference0
1Form, last 5 (pts)10
Sporting Kansas City form
DLLLLH FC Dallas1–1
A Minnesota United FC3–1
H Austin1–2
H Real Salt Lake1–3
A Nashville SC4–0
Real Salt Lake form
LWWWDA San Jose Earthquakes2–1
A Austin1–2
H St. Louis City3–0
A Sporting Kansas City1–3
H San Jose Earthquakes1–1
Head to head
0
Sporting
1
Draw
4
Real
Oct 2026Sporting Kansas City – Real Salt Lake1–3
Apr 2026Real Salt Lake – Sporting Kansas City3–1
Sept 2025Real Salt Lake – Sporting Kansas City2–1
Jun 2025Sporting Kansas City – Real Salt Lake1–1
Jun 2024Sporting Kansas City – Real Salt Lake3–4
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Real Salt Lake slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.34 for Sporting Kansas City, 1.95 for Real Salt Lake), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting Kansas City sit 15th on 23 points; Real Salt Lake are 11th on 42.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.