USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 28Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Children's Mercy Park

Sporting Kansas City

15th · 23 pts

3–3FULL TIME

Portland Timbers

11th · 40 pts

25% Sporting

20% Draw

55% Portland

OUR PICK

Portland Timbers to win

Model probability 55% · fair odds

1.83

Expected goals

1.48 – 2.23

Confidence

Medium

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X213.96X4.9421.83

Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.37

Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.13

Over 1.5

88%

Over/Under 2.5@1.40

Over 2.5

72%

Both teams to score@1.45

69%

Double chance@1.25

80%

Season stats

Sporting Kansas CityPortland Timbers

1.2Goals per game1.8

2.5Conceded per game1.9

0.70Points per game1.25

18%Win rate34%

-42Goal difference-3

1Form, last 5 (pts)8

Sporting Kansas City form

DLLLL

H FC Dallas1–1

A Minnesota United FC3–1

H Austin1–2

H Real Salt Lake1–3

A Nashville SC4–0

Portland Timbers form

No recent matches.

Head to head

Sporting

Draw

Portland

These sides haven't met recently.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Vancouver Whitecaps32+3458

2FC Dallas33+955

3San Jose Earthquakes33+852

4St. Louis City33+1051

5Houston Dynamo32+351

6Los Angeles FC32+1547

7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644

8Colorado Rapids33-143

9Seattle Sounders32+143

10Real Salt Lake33042

Match preview

Our model makes Portland Timbers slight favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.48 for Sporting Kansas City, 2.23 for Portland Timbers), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Sporting Kansas City sit 15th on 23 points; Portland Timbers are 11th on 40.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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