Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 31Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Children's Mercy Park
Sporting Kansas City
15th · 23 pts1–2FULL TIME
Austin
14th · 34 pts37% Sporting
23% Draw
40% Austin
OUR PICK
Austin to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.52
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.68
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.69X4.3422.52
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Sporting Kansas CityAustin1.2Goals per game1.3
2.5Conceded per game1.9
0.70Points per game1.03
18%Win rate24%
-42Goal difference-21
1Form, last 5 (pts)3
Sporting Kansas City form
DLLLLH FC Dallas1–1
A Minnesota United FC3–1
H Austin1–2
H Real Salt Lake1–3
A Nashville SC4–0
Austin form
LLWLLA Los Angeles Galaxy4–1
H Real Salt Lake1–2
A Sporting Kansas City1–2
H Vancouver Whitecaps1–2
A Los Angeles FC3–1
Head to head
2
Sporting
0
Draw
3
Austin
Oct 2026Sporting Kansas City – Austin1–2
May 2026Austin – Sporting Kansas City1–2
Feb 2026Sporting Kansas City – Austin2–0
Sept 2025Sporting Kansas City – Austin1–2
Feb 2025Austin – Sporting Kansas City1–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Sporting Kansas City 37%, the draw 23%, Austin 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.62 for Sporting Kansas City, 1.68 for Austin), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting Kansas City sit 15th on 23 points; Austin are 14th on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.