Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageWednesday, 21 October 2026 · Hodges Stadium
Sporting JAX
13th · 14 pts0–2FULL TIME
Louisville City
4th · 47 pts18% Sporting
17% Draw
65% Louisville
OUR PICK
Louisville City to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
1.37 – 2.68
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.63X5.8321.54
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
69%
Double chance@1.21
12
83%
Season stats
Sporting JAXLouisville City1.1Goals per game1.7
2.6Conceded per game1.4
0.47Points per game1.57
10%Win rate43%
-46Goal difference8
0Form, last 5 (pts)13
Sporting JAX form
LLLLLA Tampa Bay Rowdies2–0
H Louisville City0–2
H Birmingham Legion0–1
A Miami FC4–1
H Loudoun United1–4
Louisville City form
WDWWWH Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0
H Detroit City0–0
A Sporting JAX0–2
H Indy Eleven4–1
A Charleston Battery0–2
Head to head
0
Sporting
0
Draw
0
Louisville
These sides haven't met recently.
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Louisville City clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (1.37 for Sporting JAX, 2.68 for Louisville City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting JAX sit 13th on 14 points; Louisville City are 4th on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.