Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageWednesday, 14 October 2026 · Hodges Stadium
Sporting JAX
13th · 14 pts0–1FULL TIME
Birmingham Legion
11th · 30 pts25% Sporting
20% Draw
55% Birmingham
OUR PICK
Birmingham Legion to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.46 – 2.21
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.98X4.9121.83
Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.46NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
68%
Double chance@1.26
12
80%
Season stats
Sporting JAXBirmingham Legion1.1Goals per game1.3
2.6Conceded per game1.5
0.47Points per game1.00
10%Win rate20%
-46Goal difference-6
0Form, last 5 (pts)7
Sporting JAX form
LLLLLA Tampa Bay Rowdies2–0
H Louisville City0–2
H Birmingham Legion0–1
A Miami FC4–1
H Loudoun United1–4
Birmingham Legion form
LWDWLA Pittsburgh Riverhounds2–1
A Brooklyn1–2
H Loudoun United0–0
A Sporting JAX0–1
A Detroit City1–0
Head to head
1
Sporting
0
Draw
1
Birmingham
Oct 2026Sporting JAX – Birmingham Legion0–1
Aug 2026Birmingham Legion – Sporting JAX2–3
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Birmingham Legion slight favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.46 for Sporting JAX, 2.21 for Birmingham Legion), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting JAX sit 13th on 14 points; Birmingham Legion are 11th on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.