Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 13Sunday, 8 November 2026
Sporting Gijon
5th · 22 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Valladolid
16th · 12 pts43% Sporting
27% Draw
30% Valladolid
OUR PICK
Sporting Gijon to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.31
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.31X3.7123.35
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.98
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
NG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Sporting GijonValladolid1.1Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.5
1.83Points per game1.09
58%Win rate27%
0Goal difference0
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Sporting Gijon form
WWLWWA AD Ceuta FC0–2
A Guijuelo1–3
A Castellón4–0
H Albacete2–1
A Cadiz0–1
Valladolid form
WLLWDA Covadonga0–1
A Granada CF2–1
H Eldense2–3
H Albacete5–0
A Las Palmas2–2
Head to head
1
Sporting
2
Draw
2
Valladolid
Aug 2026Sporting Gijon – Valladolid2–4
Feb 2026Sporting Gijon – Valladolid2–2
Oct 2025Valladolid – Sporting Gijon2–3
Feb 2024Sporting Gijon – Valladolid1–1
Aug 2023Valladolid – Sporting Gijon2–0
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting Gijon slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.37 for Sporting Gijon, 1.09 for Valladolid), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting Gijon sit 5th on 22 points; Valladolid are 16th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.