Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 8Sunday, 4 October 2026 · El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini
Sporting Gijon
6th · 22 pts3–2FULL TIME
Celta de Vigo II
16th · 13 pts46% Sporting
27% Draw
27% Celta
OUR PICK
Sporting Gijon to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.03
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X3.7623.68
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.96
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.96
NG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
Sporting GijonCelta de Vigo II1.1Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.9
1.83Points per game1.08
58%Win rate25%
0Goal difference-5
12Form, last 5 (pts)5
Sporting Gijon form
WWLWWA AD Ceuta FC0–2
A Guijuelo1–3
A Castellón4–0
H Albacete2–1
A Cadiz0–1
Celta de Vigo II form
DLDWLH Cordoba2–2
A Girona5–1
H Tenerife1–1
H Real Sociedad II4–1
A Sporting Gijon3–2
Head to head
1
Sporting
0
Draw
0
Celta
Oct 2026Sporting Gijon – Celta de Vigo II3–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting Gijon slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.43 for Sporting Gijon, 1.03 for Celta de Vigo II), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting Gijon sit 6th on 22 points; Celta de Vigo II are 16th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.