Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
89%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026
Sporting CP
3rd · 21 pts21:30KICK-OFF WAT
Moreirense
9th · 14 pts73% Sporting
15% Draw
12% Moreirense
OUR PICK
Sporting CP to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
2.71 – 1.02
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.37X6.4928.48
Goals 2.5Over1.39Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.68NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.68
GG
60%
Double chance@1.13
1X
88%
Season stats
Sporting CPMoreirense2.3Goals per game1.3
1.1Conceded per game1.7
2.10Points per game1.40
60%Win rate40%
12Goal difference-4
8Form, last 5 (pts)10
Sporting CP form
WWLLWA Casa Pia0–2
H Maritimo2–1
H Academico Viseu1–2
H Lask Linz2–3
A Lens0–2
Moreirense form
WWLLDH Estrela2–1
A Estoril1–3
A AVS1–0
H GIL Vicente0–1
A Vitória SC1–1
Head to head
4
Sporting
0
Draw
1
Moreirense
Feb 2026Moreirense – Sporting CP0–3
Sept 2025Sporting CP – Moreirense3–0
Apr 2025Sporting CP – Moreirense3–1
Dec 2024Moreirense – Sporting CP2–1
Feb 2024Moreirense – Sporting CP0–2
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting CP clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.71 for Sporting CP, 1.02 for Moreirense), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting CP sit 3rd on 21 points; Moreirense are 9th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.