Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP
12th · 6 pts2–3FULL TIME
Lask Linz
24th · 3 pts73% Sporting
14% Draw
12% Lask
OUR PICK
Sporting CP to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
3.03 – 1.23
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.37X6.9728.02
Goals 2.5Over1.26Under4.49
Both scoreGG1.48NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Over 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.48
GG
67%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
Sporting CPLask Linz2.3Goals per game2.0
1.3Conceded per game3.0
2.00Points per game1.00
67%Win rate33%
3Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)6
Sporting CP form
WWLLWA Casa Pia0–2
H Maritimo2–1
H Academico Viseu1–2
H Lask Linz2–3
A Lens0–2
Lask Linz form
WWLWWH WSG Wattens2–1
H Ried5–4
H Red Bull Salzburg1–3
A Sporting CP2–3
A Austria Lustenau0–4
Head to head
1
Sporting
0
Draw
3
Lask
Oct 2026Sporting CP – Lask Linz2–3
Oct 2020Sporting CP – Lask Linz1–4
Dec 2019Lask Linz – Sporting CP3–0
Oct 2019Sporting CP – Lask Linz2–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting CP clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (3.03 for Sporting CP, 1.23 for Lask Linz), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting CP sit 12th on 6 points; Lask Linz are 24th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.