Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 8 November 2026 · CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
Sporting CP B
1st · 21 pts19:00KICK-OFF WAT
Tondela
7th · 15 pts55% Sporting
25% Draw
20% Tondela
OUR PICK
Sporting CP B to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.87
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X4.0124.93
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.82
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.87
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.87
NG
54%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
Sporting CP BTondela1.7Goals per game1.3
0.8Conceded per game1.1
2.33Points per game1.67
78%Win rate56%
8Goal difference2
12Form, last 5 (pts)12
Sporting CP B form
WWWWWA Leixoes1–2
A Leicester City U211–2
H Portimonense3–0
A Vizela0–2
A Nottingham Forest U212–4
Tondela form
WLWWWH Felgueiras 19323–2
A AVS2–1
H Alverca2–0
H Torreense1–0
A Imortal Albufeira1–5
Head to head
0
Sporting
0
Draw
0
Tondela
These sides haven't met recently.
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting CP B clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.61 for Sporting CP B, 0.87 for Tondela), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting CP B sit 1st on 21 points; Tondela are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.