Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP
3rd · 21 pts1–2FULL TIME
Academico Viseu
6th · 20 pts64% Sporting
20% Draw
17% Academico
OUR PICK
Sporting CP to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.03
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.57X5.1226.01
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Season stats
Sporting CPAcademico Viseu2.3Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.2
2.10Points per game2.00
60%Win rate60%
12Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)15
Sporting CP form
WWLLWA Casa Pia0–2
H Maritimo2–1
H Academico Viseu1–2
H Lask Linz2–3
A Lens0–2
Academico Viseu form
WLWLWH Rio Ave2–1
A FC Porto1–0
A Sporting CP1–2
A Fátima1–0
H Estoril2–1
Head to head
0
Sporting
0
Draw
1
Academico
Oct 2026Sporting CP – Academico Viseu1–2
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting CP clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.20 for Sporting CP, 1.03 for Academico Viseu), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sporting CP sit 3rd on 21 points; Academico Viseu are 6th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.