Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Tuesday, 6 October 2026 · Ilha do Retiro
Sport Recife
7th · 55 pts2–1FULL TIME
São Bernardo
10th · 52 pts41% Sport
27% Draw
32% São
OUR PICK
Sport Recife to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X3.7523.11
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
Sport RecifeSão Bernardo1.3Goals per game1.4
1.1Conceded per game1.1
1.53Points per game1.44
39%Win rate39%
9Goal difference11
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Sport Recife form
DWLDWA Botafogo SP1–1
H Criciuma2–1
H Fortaleza EC0–2
A Atletico Goianiense1–1
H São Bernardo2–1
São Bernardo form
WWLDLA Cuiaba1–2
H Vila Nova3–2
H Criciuma0–1
A Juventude2–2
A Sport Recife2–1
Head to head
1
Sport
1
Draw
0
São
Oct 2026Sport Recife – São Bernardo2–1
Jun 2026São Bernardo – Sport Recife0–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Sport Recife 41%, the draw 27%, São Bernardo 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.36 for Sport Recife, 1.17 for São Bernardo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sport Recife sit 7th on 55 points; São Bernardo are 10th on 52.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.