Over 1.5 goals@1.56
Over 1.5
64%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Friday, 16 October 2026 · Ilha do Retiro
Sport Recife
7th · 55 pts0–2FULL TIME
Fortaleza EC
5th · 61 pts41% Sport
29% Draw
30% Fortaleza
OUR PICK
Sport Recife to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.98
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.42X3.4523.36
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.60
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
Sport RecifeFortaleza EC1.3Goals per game1.2
1.1Conceded per game0.9
1.53Points per game1.74
39%Win rate46%
9Goal difference12
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sport Recife form
DWLDWA Botafogo SP1–1
H Criciuma2–1
H Fortaleza EC0–2
A Atletico Goianiense1–1
H São Bernardo2–1
Fortaleza EC form
DWDWDA Ponte Preta2–2
A Sport Recife0–2
H CRB2–2
A America Mineiro0–1
H Nautico Recife1–1
Head to head
1
Sport
0
Draw
4
Fortaleza
Oct 2026Sport Recife – Fortaleza EC0–2
Jun 2026Fortaleza EC – Sport Recife2–1
May 2026Sport Recife – Fortaleza EC0–2
May 2026Fortaleza EC – Sport Recife1–2
Apr 2026Fortaleza EC – Sport Recife2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Sport Recife slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.21 for Sport Recife, 0.98 for Fortaleza EC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sport Recife sit 7th on 55 points; Fortaleza EC are 5th on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.