Over 1.5 goals@1.74
Over 1.5
57%
BRASerie B · Matchday 35Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Ilha do Retiro
Sport Recife
8th · 55 pts2–1FULL TIME
Criciuma
4th · 62 pts38% Sport
31% Draw
30% Criciuma
OUR PICK
Sport Recife to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.61
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.89
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.61X3.1823.30
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.44
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.44
1X
70%
Season stats
Sport RecifeCriciuma1.3Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game0.8
1.53Points per game1.72
39%Win rate50%
9Goal difference8
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sport Recife form
DWLDWA Botafogo SP1–1
H Criciuma2–1
H Fortaleza EC0–2
A Atletico Goianiense1–1
H São Bernardo2–1
Criciuma form
WLWWLH Ponte Preta2–0
A Sport Recife2–1
A São Bernardo0–1
H America Mineiro1–0
A Ceara1–0
Head to head
1
Sport
2
Draw
2
Criciuma
Oct 2026Sport Recife – Criciuma2–1
Jul 2026Criciuma – Sport Recife1–0
Sept 2023Sport Recife – Criciuma3–3
May 2023Criciuma – Sport Recife1–0
Aug 2022Sport Recife – Criciuma1–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Sport Recife 38%, the draw 31%, Criciuma 30%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.04 for Sport Recife, 0.89 for Criciuma), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sport Recife sit 8th on 55 points; Criciuma are 4th on 62.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.