Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
BULFirst League · Matchday 13Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadion Spartak
Spartak Varna
8th · 13 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Arda Kardzhali
6th · 18 pts32% Spartak
25% Draw
43% Arda
OUR PICK
Arda Kardzhali to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.34
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.48
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.15X3.9222.34
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Spartak VarnaArda Kardzhali0.9Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game1.5
1.00Points per game1.50
23%Win rate42%
-11Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)2
Spartak Varna form
LLWWLA CSKA 19486–1
A Dunav Ruse2–0
A Etar Veliko Tarnovo2–4
A Botev Vratsa0–1
H Lokomotiv Sofia0–1
Arda Kardzhali form
DWLLDH Levski Sofia1–1
A Spartak Plovdiv1–2
A Ludogorets5–0
A Lokomotiv Plovdiv2–0
H Cherno More Varna1–1
Head to head
2
Spartak
1
Draw
2
Arda
Feb 2026Arda Kardzhali – Spartak Varna1–0
Sept 2025Spartak Varna – Arda Kardzhali3–0
Feb 2025Arda Kardzhali – Spartak Varna2–2
Aug 2024Spartak Varna – Arda Kardzhali1–0
Mar 2023Arda Kardzhali – Spartak Varna2–0
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Arda Kardzhali slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.24 for Spartak Varna, 1.48 for Arda Kardzhali), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Spartak Varna sit 8th on 13 points; Arda Kardzhali are 6th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.