Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel
Sparta Rotterdam
14th · 9 pts1–2FULL TIME
Ajax
2nd · 24 pts19% Sparta
17% Draw
63% Ajax
OUR PICK
Ajax to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.74
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.16X5.8121.58
Goals 2.5Over1.26Under4.49
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Over 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
73%
Double chance@1.21
12
83%
Season stats
Sparta RotterdamAjax1.7Goals per game2.7
2.4Conceded per game1.2
0.90Points per game2.18
20%Win rate64%
-7Goal difference17
4Form, last 5 (pts)11
Sparta Rotterdam form
DLWDLH Fortuna Sittard2–2
H Ajax1–2
H Willem II3–2
A GO Ahead Eagles3–3
H Heerenveen0–4
Ajax form
WWWWLH AZ Alkmaar1–0
A Sparta Rotterdam1–2
H Atalanta2–0
A Groningen2–5
A HNK Hajduk Split2–1
Head to head
0
Sparta
2
Draw
3
Ajax
Oct 2026Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax1–2
Mar 2026Ajax – Sparta Rotterdam4–0
Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax3–3
Apr 2025Ajax – Sparta Rotterdam1–1
Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax0–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model makes Ajax clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (1.50 for Sparta Rotterdam, 2.74 for Ajax), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sparta Rotterdam sit 14th on 9 points; Ajax are 2nd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.