Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
CZECzech Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 11 October 2026 · epet ARENA
Sparta Praha
4th · 23 pts2–0FULL TIME
Pardubice
12th · 14 pts62% Sparta
21% Draw
17% Pardubice
OUR PICK
Sparta Praha to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
2.04 – 0.96
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.60X4.8325.89
Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Season stats
Sparta PrahaPardubice1.9Goals per game1.2
1.0Conceded per game1.5
1.77Points per game1.08
54%Win rate31%
12Goal difference-4
11Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sparta Praha form
DLWLDA Bohemians 19050–0
H Baník Ostrava0–2
H Slovácko5–1
A Olympiakos Piraeus1–0
A Baník Ostrava0–0
Pardubice form
LWWWLH Slovan Liberec1–2
A Slovácko1–4
A Plzen1–2
H Zlin3–0
A Sparta Praha2–0
Head to head
4
Sparta
0
Draw
1
Pardubice
Oct 2026Sparta Praha – Pardubice2–0
Nov 2025Sparta Praha – Pardubice2–4
Aug 2025Pardubice – Sparta Praha1–3
Apr 2025Pardubice – Sparta Praha1–2
Jul 2024Sparta Praha – Pardubice2–1
Czech Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Slavia Praha13+2531
2Mlada Boleslav13+724
3Sigma Olomouc13+724
4Sparta Praha13+1223
5Slovan Liberec12+723
6Teplice13+321
7FK Jablonec13-220
8Zbrojovka Brno13-320
9Plzen13+719
10Bohemians 190512017
Match preview
Our model makes Sparta Praha clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.04 for Sparta Praha, 0.96 for Pardubice), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sparta Praha sit 4th on 23 points; Pardubice are 12th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.