Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Stadion Letná
Sparta Praha
16th · 4 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Bournemouth
3rd · 9 pts30% Sparta
25% Draw
45% Bournemouth
OUR PICK
Bournemouth to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.53
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.38X3.9522.22
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Sparta PrahaBournemouth1.7Goals per game2.7
1.0Conceded per game0.3
1.33Points per game3.00
33%Win rate100%
2Goal difference7
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sparta Praha form
DLWLDA Bohemians 19050–0
H Baník Ostrava0–2
H Slovácko5–1
A Olympiakos Piraeus1–0
A Baník Ostrava0–0
Bournemouth form
WWWWWH Leeds2–0
H Aston Villa3–0
A Manchester United0–3
H AC Milan3–0
H Sunderland2–0
Head to head
0
Sparta
0
Draw
0
Bournemouth
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Bournemouth slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.19 for Sparta Praha, 1.53 for Bournemouth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sparta Praha sit 16th on 4 points; Bournemouth are 3rd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.