Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton
5th · 23 pts4–1FULL TIME
QPR
9th · 20 pts58% Southampton
22% Draw
20% QPR
OUR PICK
Southampton to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.72
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.07
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.72X4.6124.93
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
SouthamptonQPR2.2Goals per game1.6
1.0Conceded per game1.2
1.77Points per game1.54
62%Win rate38%
15Goal difference5
13Form, last 5 (pts)7
Southampton form
No recent matches.
QPR form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Southampton
0
Draw
0
QPR
These sides haven't met recently.
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Southampton clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.96 for Southampton, 1.07 for QPR), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Southampton sit 5th on 23 points; QPR are 9th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.