Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
93%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton
5th · 23 pts0–0FULL TIME
Bolton
19th · 14 pts79% Southampton
12% Draw
9% Bolton
OUR PICK
Southampton to win
Model probability 79% · fair odds
1.27
Expected goals
3.22 – 1.07
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.27X8.12211.02
Goals 2.5Over1.25Under4.72
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Over 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
SouthamptonBolton2.2Goals per game1.4
1.0Conceded per game2.0
1.77Points per game1.08
62%Win rate31%
15Goal difference-8
13Form, last 5 (pts)4
Southampton form
WWDWWH QPR4–1
A West Ham2–3
H Bolton0–0
A Norwich0–1
H Portsmouth1–0
Bolton form
LLDWLH Bristol City2–3
H Middlesbrough1–5
A Southampton0–0
A Wolves1–3
H Stoke City1–2
Head to head
0
Southampton
1
Draw
0
Bolton
Oct 2026Southampton – Bolton0–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Southampton clear favourites, giving them a 79% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (3.22 for Southampton, 1.07 for Bolton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Southampton sit 5th on 23 points; Bolton are 19th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.