Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 24Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Fosshaugane Campus
Sogndal
12th · 30 pts2–1FULL TIME
Raufoss
16th · 20 pts67% Sogndal
17% Draw
16% Raufoss
OUR PICK
Sogndal to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.49
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.20
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.49X5.8126.31
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.55NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.55
GG
65%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
SogndalRaufoss1.7Goals per game1.1
2.2Conceded per game2.7
1.03Points per game0.69
28%Win rate21%
-15Goal difference-47
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
Sogndal form
DLWWDA Ranheim1–1
A Lillestrom2–1
H Kongsvinger3–1
H Raufoss2–1
A Egersund3–3
Raufoss form
LLLLDA Lyn4–0
H Ranheim1–3
A Sogndal2–1
A hodd5–1
A Bryne1–1
Head to head
2
Sogndal
2
Draw
1
Raufoss
Oct 2026Sogndal – Raufoss2–1
Jun 2026Raufoss – Sogndal3–1
Mar 2026Sogndal – Raufoss1–1
Oct 2025Raufoss – Sogndal1–3
May 2025Sogndal – Raufoss2–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund29+3665
2Stromsgodset29+4563
3Kongsvinger29+3659
4Stabaek29+3358
5ODD Ballklubb29+1146
6Bryne29+243
7Ranheim29+441
8Egersund29-938
9hodd29-1038
10Strommen29-1236
Match preview
Our model makes Sogndal clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.58 for Sogndal, 1.20 for Raufoss), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sogndal sit 12th on 30 points; Raufoss are 16th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.