Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
94%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 28Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Fosshaugane Campus
Sogndal
12th · 30 pts3–1FULL TIME
Kongsvinger
3rd · 59 pts19% Sogndal
16% Draw
65% Kongsvinger
OUR PICK
Kongsvinger to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
1.57 – 2.92
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.36X6.1121.54
Goals 2.5Over1.21Under5.24
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.21
Over 2.5
82%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.20
12
84%
Season stats
SogndalKongsvinger1.7Goals per game2.9
2.2Conceded per game1.6
1.07Points per game2.11
29%Win rate64%
-14Goal difference37
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sogndal form
DLWWDA Ranheim1–1
A Lillestrom2–1
H Kongsvinger3–1
H Raufoss2–1
A Egersund3–3
Kongsvinger form
LLWLWA Pors Grenland3–1
A Sogndal3–1
H Sandnes ULF4–0
A Stromsgodset5–1
H Ranheim6–2
Head to head
1
Sogndal
2
Draw
2
Kongsvinger
Oct 2026Sogndal – Kongsvinger3–1
Jul 2026Kongsvinger – Sogndal5–1
Sept 2025Sogndal – Kongsvinger2–2
Jun 2025Kongsvinger – Sogndal4–2
May 2025Sogndal – Kongsvinger3–3
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund28+3462
2Stromsgodset28+4260
3Kongsvinger28+3759
4Stabaek28+3255
5ODD Ballklubb28+1145
6Bryne28-140
7Ranheim28+338
8hodd28-738
9Strommen28-1036
10Egersund28-1135
Match preview
Our model makes Kongsvinger clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.5 goals in total (1.57 for Sogndal, 2.92 for Kongsvinger), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sogndal sit 12th on 30 points; Kongsvinger are 3rd on 59.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.