Over 1.5 goals@2.20
Over 1.5
46%
EGYPremier League · Matchday 6Monday, 12 October 2026 · Alexandria Stadium
Smouha SC
9th · 11 pts1–0FULL TIME
Ghazl El Mehalla
17th · 7 pts46% Smouha
35% Draw
19% Ghazl
OUR PICK
Smouha SC to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.01 – 0.53
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X2.8925.27
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.25
Both scoreGG3.63NG1.35
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.35
NG
74%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
Smouha SCGhazl El Mehalla0.6Goals per game0.5
0.6Conceded per game1.4
1.38Points per game0.88
38%Win rate25%
0Goal difference-7
10Form, last 5 (pts)6
Smouha SC form
DWWWLA Petrojet1–1
A El Gouna FC0–2
H Ghazl El Mehalla1–0
A El Geish0–1
H Ceramica Cleopatra0–2
Ghazl El Mehalla form
WWLDLA Abu Qair Semad0–1
H Al Ittihad2–1
A Smouha SC1–0
H Abu Qair Semad1–1
H Zamalek SC0–1
Head to head
2
Smouha
1
Draw
2
Ghazl
Oct 2026Smouha SC – Ghazl El Mehalla1–0
Nov 2025Smouha SC – Ghazl El Mehalla3–1
Aug 2025Ghazl El Mehalla – Smouha SC0–0
Apr 2025Ghazl El Mehalla – Smouha SC1–0
Dec 2024Smouha SC – Ghazl El Mehalla2–4
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Pyramids FC8+1524
2Al Ahly8+920
3Zamalek SC8+719
4Ceramica Cleopatra8+718
5Al Ittihad8+314
6Future FC8+213
7El Mokawloon8+311
8National Bank of Egypt8011
9Smouha SC8011
10Masr8-111
Match preview
Our model makes Smouha SC slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (1.01 for Smouha SC, 0.53 for Ghazl El Mehalla), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Smouha SC sit 9th on 11 points; Ghazl El Mehalla are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.