Over 1.5 goals@1.88
Over 1.5
53%
BULFirst League · Matchday 13Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov
Slavia Sofia
7th · 13 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Cherno More Varna
9th · 12 pts48% Slavia
32% Draw
21% Cherno
OUR PICK
Slavia Sofia to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.64
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.09X3.1624.84
Goals 2.5Over3.63Under1.36
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.47
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Under 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.47
NG
68%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
Slavia SofiaCherno More Varna0.7Goals per game1.1
0.7Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game0.92
15%Win rate23%
0Goal difference-8
3Form, last 5 (pts)8
Slavia Sofia form
DDWLWA CSKA Sofia0–0
A Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–0
A Akademik Svishtov0–3
A Botev Plovdiv1–0
H Botev Vratsa2–1
Cherno More Varna form
WLWLLH Septemvri Sofia2–0
H Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–1
A Marek0–3
H Levski Sofia0–2
A Ludogorets5–0
Head to head
2
Slavia
2
Draw
1
Cherno
Apr 2026Cherno More Varna – Slavia Sofia1–3
Oct 2025Slavia Sofia – Cherno More Varna0–0
Mar 2025Cherno More Varna – Slavia Sofia1–1
Dec 2024Cherno More Varna – Slavia Sofia1–0
Oct 2024Slavia Sofia – Cherno More Varna1–0
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali13-121
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model makes Slavia Sofia slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.14 for Slavia Sofia, 0.64 for Cherno More Varna), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Slavia Sofia sit 7th on 13 points; Cherno More Varna are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.