Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Tarczynski Arena
Slask Wroclaw
16th · 9 pts1–4FULL TIME
Lech Poznan
1st · 31 pts17% Slask
19% Draw
64% Lech
OUR PICK
Lech Poznan to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.28
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.84X5.2421.57
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.21
X2
83%
Season stats
Slask WroclawLech Poznan1.3Goals per game2.7
1.9Conceded per game0.9
0.69Points per game2.58
15%Win rate83%
-8Goal difference21
3Form, last 5 (pts)15
Slask Wroclaw form
LWLLLA Odra Opole2–1
H Wieczysta Kraków2–0
A Motor Lublin3–2
H Lech Poznan1–4
H Slovan Liberec0–3
Lech Poznan form
WLWDWH Wisla Krakow3–1
A Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0
A Legia Warszawa1–2
H Sunderland1–1
H Korona Kielce6–1
Head to head
2
Slask
1
Draw
2
Lech
Oct 2026Slask Wroclaw – Lech Poznan1–4
Mar 2025Slask Wroclaw – Lech Poznan3–1
Sept 2024Lech Poznan – Slask Wroclaw1–0
Feb 2024Lech Poznan – Slask Wroclaw0–0
Aug 2023Slask Wroclaw – Lech Poznan3–1
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Lech Poznan clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.10 for Slask Wroclaw, 2.28 for Lech Poznan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Slask Wroclaw sit 16th on 9 points; Lech Poznan are 1st on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.