Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
BELJupiler Pro League · Matchday 8Friday, 9 October 2026 · Freethiel Stadion
SK Beveren
12th · 10 pts1–3FULL TIME
Lommel United
7th · 15 pts36% SK
27% Draw
37% Lommel
OUR PICK
Lommel United to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.72
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.26
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.76X3.7122.72
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG1.96NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.96
GG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
SK BeverenLommel United1.3Goals per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.1
1.00Points per game1.50
30%Win rate40%
-7Goal difference2
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
SK Beveren form
LDWLLH Union St. Gilloise1–2
A KVC Westerlo4–4
H Habay-la-Neuve3–0
H Lommel United1–3
A Kortrijk1–0
Lommel United form
WDLWWH Gent2–0
A OH Leuven2–2
A St. Truiden4–1
A SK Beveren1–3
A Diksmuide0–2
Head to head
3
SK
1
Draw
1
Lommel
Oct 2026SK Beveren – Lommel United1–3
Feb 2026SK Beveren – Lommel United2–0
Nov 2025Lommel United – SK Beveren2–2
Feb 2025Lommel United – SK Beveren1–2
Aug 2024SK Beveren – Lommel United2–1
Jupiler Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club Brugge KV10+1827
2Union St. Gilloise10+2226
3Gent10+1325
4Charleroi10+924
5Anderlecht10+219
6Genk10+415
7Lommel United10+215
8KVC Westerlo10014
9Standard Liege10-112
10Zulte Waregem10-411
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: SK Beveren 36%, the draw 27%, Lommel United 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.25 for SK Beveren, 1.26 for Lommel United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SK Beveren sit 12th on 10 points; Lommel United are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.