Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
BHRPremier League · Matchday 4Sunday, 11 October 2026
Sitra
7th · 8 pts0–2FULL TIME
Al Najma
8th · 8 pts59% Sitra
20% Draw
21% Al
OUR PICK
Sitra to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.27
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X4.9924.73
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
SitraAl Najma1.0Goals per game1.7
1.3Conceded per game2.3
1.14Points per game1.14
29%Win rate29%
-2Goal difference-4
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Sitra form
LLWLDA Muharraq4–0
H Al Riffa2–3
A A'Ali0–2
H Al Najma0–2
H Al-Hidd0–0
Al Najma form
DLDWLA Al Riffa2–2
H A'Ali1–2
H Al-Hidd2–2
A Sitra0–2
H East Riffa2–3
Head to head
0
Sitra
3
Draw
2
Al
Oct 2026Sitra – Al Najma0–2
Feb 2026Al Najma – Sitra2–0
Sept 2025Sitra – Al Najma0–0
May 2025Al Najma – Sitra1–1
Feb 2025Sitra – Al Najma0–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al Riffa7+1115
2Khalidiya7+1015
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba7+514
4Muharraq7+411
5Al Ahli709
6East Riffa7-58
7Sitra7-28
8Al Najma7-48
9A'Ali7-38
10Al-Hidd707
Match preview
Our model makes Sitra clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.22 for Sitra, 1.27 for Al Najma), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sitra sit 7th on 8 points; Al Najma are 8th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.