Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 24Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Studenternas IP
Sirius
2nd · 55 pts2–2FULL TIME
IF Elfsborg
5th · 43 pts48% Sirius
24% Draw
28% IF
OUR PICK
Sirius to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.19
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.09X4.0923.61
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
SiriusIF Elfsborg2.2Goals per game1.5
1.3Conceded per game1.0
2.12Points per game1.65
65%Win rate42%
22Goal difference13
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sirius form
LLDWA Hammarby FF2–0
H AIK Stockholm1–2
H IF Elfsborg2–2
A Gais0–1
IF Elfsborg form
WDDDWH Orgryte IS2–1
A AIK Stockholm2–2
H Malmo FF0–0
A Sirius2–2
H Halmstad4–0
Head to head
3
Sirius
1
Draw
1
IF
Oct 2026Sirius – IF Elfsborg2–2
Jul 2026IF Elfsborg – Sirius1–3
Mar 2026IF Elfsborg – Sirius1–2
Oct 2025Sirius – IF Elfsborg4–0
Apr 2025IF Elfsborg – Sirius4–3
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken26+1746
5IF Elfsborg26+1343
6Vasteras SK FK26+141
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm26-338
9IFK Goteborg26-938
10Gais26+634
Match preview
Our model makes Sirius slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.64 for Sirius, 1.19 for IF Elfsborg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sirius sit 2nd on 55 points; IF Elfsborg are 5th on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.