Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
CHNSuper League · Matchday 27Friday, 9 October 2026 · Shenzhen Stadium
Sichuan Jiuniu
11th · 32 pts2–2FULL TIME
Henan Jianye
14th · 28 pts39% Sichuan
26% Draw
35% Henan
OUR PICK
Sichuan Jiuniu to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.55
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.30
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.55X3.8722.86
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Sichuan JiuniuHenan Jianye1.3Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game1.4
1.10Points per game0.97
31%Win rate28%
-12Goal difference-4
5Form, last 5 (pts)3
Sichuan Jiuniu form
WLDDLH Shanghai Shenhua2–1
A Dalian Zhixing3–1
H Henan Jianye2–2
A Shandong Luneng1–1
H SHANGHAI SIPG0–1
Henan Jianye form
LLDDDH Beijing Guoan3–4
H Tianjin Teda0–1
A Sichuan Jiuniu2–2
A Wuhan Three Towns1–1
H Chengdu Better City0–0
Head to head
0
Sichuan
2
Draw
3
Henan
Oct 2026Sichuan Jiuniu – Henan Jianye2–2
May 2026Henan Jianye – Sichuan Jiuniu1–0
Aug 2025Henan Jianye – Sichuan Jiuniu4–1
Apr 2025Sichuan Jiuniu – Henan Jianye1–3
Jul 2024Sichuan Jiuniu – Henan Jianye0–0
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Chengdu Better City29+1652
2Dalian Zhixing29+349
3Beijing Guoan29+2147
4Shandong Luneng29+1044
5SHANGHAI SIPG29+1442
6Yunnan Yukun29-340
7Qingdao Youth Island29-639
8Shanghai Shenhua29+1337
9Chongqing Tongliang Long29-336
10Hangzhou Greentown29-334
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Sichuan Jiuniu 39%, the draw 26%, Henan Jianye 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.39 for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1.30 for Henan Jianye), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sichuan Jiuniu sit 11th on 32 points; Henan Jianye are 14th on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.