Over 1.5 goals@1.80
Over 1.5
55%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · The Croud Meadow
Shrewsbury
15th · 18 pts0–1FULL TIME
Exeter City
12th · 19 pts34% Shrewsbury
32% Draw
34% Exeter
OUR PICK
Shrewsbury to win
Model probability 34% · fair odds
2.95
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.93
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.95X3.1022.95
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.40
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.48
12
68%
Season stats
ShrewsburyExeter City1.2Goals per game0.8
1.6Conceded per game0.6
1.29Points per game1.36
36%Win rate36%
-5Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Shrewsbury form
LWDWWH Gillingham1–2
H Everton U212–1
A Rotherham3–3
A Crawley Town2–3
H Bristol Rovers1–0
Exeter City form
LWWDWA Salford City2–1
H Fleetwood Town2–1
H Crewe2–0
A Colchester0–0
A Shrewsbury0–1
Head to head
0
Shrewsbury
1
Draw
4
Exeter
Oct 2026Shrewsbury – Exeter City0–1
Mar 2025Exeter City – Shrewsbury2–0
Oct 2024Shrewsbury – Exeter City0–2
Mar 2024Shrewsbury – Exeter City0–3
Nov 2023Exeter City – Shrewsbury0–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Shrewsbury 34%, the draw 32%, Exeter City 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.95 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.93 for Shrewsbury, 0.93 for Exeter City), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shrewsbury sit 15th on 18 points; Exeter City are 12th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.