Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
82%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · The Croud Meadow
Shrewsbury
15th · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
Bristol Rovers
17th · 16 pts44% Shrewsbury
24% Draw
32% Bristol
OUR PICK
Shrewsbury to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.26X4.2323.11
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
ShrewsburyBristol Rovers1.2Goals per game1.2
1.6Conceded per game1.6
1.29Points per game1.14
36%Win rate36%
-5Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
Shrewsbury form
LWDWWH Gillingham1–2
H Everton U212–1
A Rotherham3–3
A Crawley Town2–3
H Bristol Rovers1–0
Bristol Rovers form
LDLLLA Fleetwood Town3–1
H Swindon Town0–0
H Salford City1–2
A Shrewsbury1–0
H Barnet1–3
Head to head
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draw
0
Bristol
These sides haven't met recently.
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Shrewsbury slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.69 for Shrewsbury, 1.41 for Bristol Rovers), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shrewsbury sit 15th on 18 points; Bristol Rovers are 17th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.