Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
NGANPFL · Matchday 9Friday, 16 October 2026 · Lekan Salami Stadium
Shooting Stars
10th · 15 pts3–1FULL TIME
Ranchers Bees
19th · 9 pts44% Shooting
26% Draw
30% Ranchers
OUR PICK
Shooting Stars to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.27X3.8423.34
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Shooting StarsRanchers Bees1.5Goals per game1.1
1.4Conceded per game1.4
1.36Points per game0.90
36%Win rate20%
1Goal difference-3
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
Shooting Stars form
WDWLDH Abia Warriors4–1
A Ikorodu City2–2
H Ranchers Bees3–1
A Kun Khalifat FC2–0
H Kano Pillars0–0
Ranchers Bees form
DLDLDA Inter Lagos1–1
A Shooting Stars3–1
H Niger Tornadoes0–0
A Kwara United2–1
H Rivers United0–0
Head to head
1
Shooting
0
Draw
0
Ranchers
Oct 2026Shooting Stars – Ranchers Bees3–1
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Shooting Stars slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.45 for Shooting Stars, 1.15 for Ranchers Bees), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shooting Stars sit 10th on 15 points; Ranchers Bees are 19th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.