Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
NGANPFL · Matchday 7Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Lekan Salami Stadium
Shooting Stars
10th · 15 pts0–0FULL TIME
Nasarawa United
5th · 17 pts44% Shooting
26% Draw
31% Nasarawa
OUR PICK
Shooting Stars to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.29X3.9023.25
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
Shooting StarsNasarawa United1.5Goals per game1.0
1.4Conceded per game0.9
1.36Points per game1.55
36%Win rate45%
1Goal difference1
8Form, last 5 (pts)10
Shooting Stars form
No recent matches.
Nasarawa United form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Shooting
0
Draw
0
Nasarawa
These sides haven't met recently.
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Shooting Stars slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.48 for Shooting Stars, 1.20 for Nasarawa United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shooting Stars sit 10th on 15 points; Nasarawa United are 5th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.