Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
NGANPFL · Matchday 3Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Lekan Salami Stadium
Shooting Stars
10th · 15 pts0–0FULL TIME
Kano Pillars
4th · 18 pts41% Shooting
24% Draw
35% Kano
OUR PICK
Shooting Stars to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.43
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X4.1322.89
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Shooting StarsKano Pillars1.5Goals per game1.3
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.36Points per game1.64
36%Win rate36%
1Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Shooting Stars form
WDWLDH Abia Warriors4–1
A Ikorodu City2–2
H Ranchers Bees3–1
A Kun Khalifat FC2–0
H Kano Pillars0–0
Kano Pillars form
WDWLDH Nasarawa United2–0
A Warri Wolves0–0
H Katsina United1–0
A Plateau United4–0
A Shooting Stars0–0
Head to head
2
Shooting
2
Draw
1
Kano
Oct 2026Shooting Stars – Kano Pillars0–0
Mar 2026Shooting Stars – Kano Pillars2–1
Oct 2025Kano Pillars – Shooting Stars1–1
May 2025Kano Pillars – Shooting Stars3–1
Dec 2024Shooting Stars – Kano Pillars2–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Shooting Stars 41%, the draw 24%, Kano Pillars 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.58 for Shooting Stars, 1.43 for Kano Pillars), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shooting Stars sit 10th on 15 points; Kano Pillars are 4th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.