Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
NGANPFL · Matchday 11Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Lekan Salami Stadium
Shooting Stars
15th · 12 pts4–1FULL TIME
Abia Warriors
17th · 10 pts47% Shooting
27% Draw
26% Abia
OUR PICK
Shooting Stars to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.11
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.11X3.7623.85
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.78
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.92
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.92
NG
52%
Double chance@1.35
1X
74%
Season stats
Shooting StarsAbia Warriors1.2Goals per game0.9
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.20Points per game1.00
30%Win rate20%
-2Goal difference-4
6Form, last 5 (pts)5
Shooting Stars form
No recent matches.
Abia Warriors form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Shooting
0
Draw
0
Abia
These sides haven't met recently.
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United10+1017
2Enugu Rangers8+517
3Nasarawa United10+317
4Barau FC11+316
5Niger Tornadoes11+116
6Plateau United10+415
7Bendel Insurance9+215
8Sporting Lagos9+215
9Kano Pillars10+115
10Doma United10015
Match preview
Our model makes Shooting Stars slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.44 for Shooting Stars, 0.99 for Abia Warriors), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shooting Stars sit 15th on 12 points; Abia Warriors are 17th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.