Over 1.5 goals@1.72
Over 1.5
58%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 15Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Lemon Gas Stadium
Shonan Bellmare
7th · 22 pts06:00KICK-OFF WAT
Sagan Tosu
13th · 17 pts47% Shonan
30% Draw
23% Sagan
OUR PICK
Shonan Bellmare to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.75
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.14X3.3124.33
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Shonan BellmareSagan Tosu1.1Goals per game1.0
0.9Conceded per game1.2
1.57Points per game1.21
36%Win rate36%
2Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Shonan Bellmare form
LWDDDA Consadole Sapporo1–0
H Tochigi City2–1
H Iwaki1–1
A Kataller Toyama1–1
H Albirex Niigata1–1
Sagan Tosu form
LLWLWA Jubilo Iwata2–0
H Kawasaki Frontale0–2
H Vanraure Hachinohe2–0
A Albirex Niigata2–1
H Omiya Ardija2–1
Head to head
0
Shonan
0
Draw
0
Sagan
These sides haven't met recently.
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Shonan Bellmare slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.20 for Shonan Bellmare, 0.75 for Sagan Tosu), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shonan Bellmare sit 7th on 22 points; Sagan Tosu are 13th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.