Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 10Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Lemon Gas Stadium
Shonan Bellmare
7th · 22 pts1–1FULL TIME
Albirex Niigata
2nd · 26 pts51% Shonan
25% Draw
24% Albirex
OUR PICK
Shonan Bellmare to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.04
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.96X4.0524.13
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
Shonan BellmareAlbirex Niigata1.1Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game1.7
1.57Points per game1.86
36%Win rate57%
2Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Shonan Bellmare form
DLWDDH Sagan Tosu0–0
A Consadole Sapporo1–0
H Tochigi City2–1
H Iwaki1–1
A Kataller Toyama1–1
Albirex Niigata form
DLWWLA Ventforet Kofu0–0
H Kataller Toyama2–3
H Vegalta Sendai2–1
H Sagan Tosu2–1
A Oita Trinita5–1
Head to head
2
Shonan
1
Draw
2
Albirex
Oct 2026Shonan Bellmare – Albirex Niigata1–1
Nov 2025Shonan Bellmare – Albirex Niigata5–2
May 2025Albirex Niigata – Shonan Bellmare2–1
Sept 2024Albirex Niigata – Shonan Bellmare3–1
May 2024Shonan Bellmare – Albirex Niigata2–1
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Shonan Bellmare slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.63 for Shonan Bellmare, 1.04 for Albirex Niigata), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shonan Bellmare sit 7th on 22 points; Albirex Niigata are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.