Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 14Saturday, 7 November 2026 · IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Shimizu S-pulse
13th · 14 pts05:00KICK-OFF WAT
Tokyo Verdy
17th · 11 pts40% Shimizu
29% Draw
31% Tokyo
OUR PICK
Shimizu S-pulse to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.51
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.98
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.51X3.3923.26
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
71%
Season stats
Shimizu S-pulseTokyo Verdy0.8Goals per game0.8
1.7Conceded per game1.7
1.08Points per game0.85
31%Win rate15%
-12Goal difference-11
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Shimizu S-pulse form
LLLDLA Kyoto Sanga2–0
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
H Machida Zelvia0–5
H Gamba Osaka2–2
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–1
Tokyo Verdy form
WWDLLA V-varen Nagasaki1–2
H Avispa Fukuoka3–1
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–2
H FC Tokyo0–4
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–2
Head to head
3
Shimizu
1
Draw
1
Tokyo
Oct 2025Shimizu S-pulse – Tokyo Verdy1–0
Feb 2025Tokyo Verdy – Shimizu S-pulse0–1
Sept 2024Tokyo Verdy – Shimizu S-pulse3–1
Dec 2023Tokyo Verdy – Shimizu S-pulse1–1
Aug 2023Tokyo Verdy – Shimizu S-pulse0–1
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Shimizu S-pulse 40%, the draw 29%, Tokyo Verdy 31%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.16 for Shimizu S-pulse, 0.98 for Tokyo Verdy), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shimizu S-pulse sit 13th on 14 points; Tokyo Verdy are 17th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.