Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
69%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Shimizu S-pulse
13th · 14 pts0–5FULL TIME
Machida Zelvia
3rd · 28 pts17% Shimizu
24% Draw
59% Machida
OUR PICK
Machida Zelvia to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.66
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.99X4.1421.69
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.20
X2
83%
Season stats
Shimizu S-pulseMachida Zelvia0.8Goals per game2.3
1.7Conceded per game0.8
1.08Points per game2.15
31%Win rate62%
-12Goal difference20
4Form, last 5 (pts)11
Shimizu S-pulse form
LLLDLA Kyoto Sanga2–0
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
H Machida Zelvia0–5
H Gamba Osaka2–2
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–1
Machida Zelvia form
DWDWWH Gamba Osaka0–0
A Shanghai Shenhua0–1
A Vissel Kobe0–0
A Shimizu S-pulse0–5
H Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Head to head
1
Shimizu
1
Draw
3
Machida
Oct 2026Shimizu S-pulse – Machida Zelvia0–5
Jul 2025Machida Zelvia – Shimizu S-pulse3–0
May 2025Shimizu S-pulse – Machida Zelvia2–2
Aug 2023Shimizu S-pulse – Machida Zelvia3–2
May 2023Machida Zelvia – Shimizu S-pulse2–1
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Machida Zelvia clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.75 for Shimizu S-pulse, 1.66 for Machida Zelvia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shimizu S-pulse sit 13th on 14 points; Machida Zelvia are 3rd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.