Over 1.5 goals@1.61
Over 1.5
62%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Shimizu S-pulse
13th · 14 pts2–2FULL TIME
Gamba Osaka
16th · 12 pts33% Shimizu
30% Draw
37% Gamba
OUR PICK
Gamba Osaka to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.71
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.00X3.3522.71
Goals 2.5Over2.70Under1.55
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Under 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
58%
Double chance@1.43
12
70%
Season stats
Shimizu S-pulseGamba Osaka0.8Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.6
1.08Points per game0.92
31%Win rate15%
-12Goal difference-7
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Shimizu S-pulse form
LLLDLA Kyoto Sanga2–0
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
H Machida Zelvia0–5
H Gamba Osaka2–2
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–1
Gamba Osaka form
DDDWDA Machida Zelvia0–0
H Buriram United1–1
H Kyoto Sanga2–2
A Avispa Fukuoka1–2
A Shimizu S-pulse2–2
Head to head
0
Shimizu
3
Draw
2
Gamba
Oct 2026Shimizu S-pulse – Gamba Osaka2–2
May 2026Shimizu S-pulse – Gamba Osaka1–2
Feb 2026Gamba Osaka – Shimizu S-pulse2–2
Jun 2025Shimizu S-pulse – Gamba Osaka0–0
Mar 2025Gamba Osaka – Shimizu S-pulse1–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Shimizu S-pulse 33%, the draw 30%, Gamba Osaka 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.02 for Shimizu S-pulse, 1.09 for Gamba Osaka), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shimizu S-pulse sit 13th on 14 points; Gamba Osaka are 16th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.