Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Hillsborough Stadium
Sheffield Wednesday
9th · 20 pts5–0FULL TIME
AFC Wimbledon
18th · 13 pts57% Sheffield
26% Draw
17% AFC
OUR PICK
Sheffield Wednesday to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.71
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.76X3.8625.75
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.66
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.66
NG
60%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
Sheffield WednesdayAFC Wimbledon1.7Goals per game0.7
1.1Conceded per game1.6
1.54Points per game1.00
38%Win rate23%
8Goal difference-12
5Form, last 5 (pts)1
Sheffield Wednesday form
DDLLWH Blackpool1–1
H Cambridge United1–1
A Doncaster2–0
A Notts County2–0
H AFC Wimbledon5–0
AFC Wimbledon form
LLDLLA Stockport County2–1
H Arsenal U211–2
H Wycombe1–1
H Mansfield Town0–3
A Sheffield Wednesday5–0
Head to head
2
Sheffield
1
Draw
0
AFC
Oct 2026Sheffield Wednesday – AFC Wimbledon5–0
Apr 2022Sheffield Wednesday – AFC Wimbledon2–1
Oct 2021AFC Wimbledon – Sheffield Wednesday2–2
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Sheffield Wednesday clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.52 for Sheffield Wednesday, 0.71 for AFC Wimbledon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sheffield Wednesday sit 9th on 20 points; AFC Wimbledon are 18th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.