Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Bramall Lane
Sheffield Utd
10th · 19 pts3–0FULL TIME
Lincoln
16th · 15 pts50% Sheffield
26% Draw
24% Lincoln
OUR PICK
Sheffield Utd to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.99
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.01X3.8924.08
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
Sheffield UtdLincoln1.3Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.8
1.46Points per game1.15
38%Win rate31%
2Goal difference-9
10Form, last 5 (pts)4
Sheffield Utd form
WDWLWH Wrexham1–0
H Derby1–1
A Bristol City0–1
A Portsmouth3–2
H Lincoln3–0
Lincoln form
LWDLLH Birmingham1–3
H Burnley4–1
A Millwall2–2
H West Ham0–6
A Sheffield Utd3–0
Head to head
1
Sheffield
1
Draw
0
Lincoln
Oct 2026Sheffield Utd – Lincoln3–0
Aug 2023Sheffield Utd – Lincoln0–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Sheffield Utd slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.53 for Sheffield Utd, 0.99 for Lincoln), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sheffield Utd sit 10th on 19 points; Lincoln are 16th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.