Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Bramall Lane
Sheffield Utd
10th · 19 pts1–1FULL TIME
Derby
23rd · 7 pts66% Sheffield
21% Draw
14% Derby
OUR PICK
Sheffield Utd to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.52
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.75
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.52X4.8127.37
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
Sheffield UtdDerby1.3Goals per game0.8
1.2Conceded per game1.9
1.46Points per game0.54
38%Win rate8%
2Goal difference-14
10Form, last 5 (pts)2
Sheffield Utd form
WDWLWH Wrexham1–0
H Derby1–1
A Bristol City0–1
A Portsmouth3–2
H Lincoln3–0
Derby form
LDLLDA Millwall4–1
A Sheffield Utd1–1
H Stoke City0–1
A QPR4–1
H Wrexham1–1
Head to head
3
Sheffield
1
Draw
1
Derby
Oct 2026Sheffield Utd – Derby1–1
May 2026Derby – Sheffield Utd1–2
Nov 2025Sheffield Utd – Derby1–3
Feb 2025Derby – Sheffield Utd0–1
Sept 2024Sheffield Utd – Derby1–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Sheffield Utd clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.95 for Sheffield Utd, 0.75 for Derby), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sheffield Utd sit 10th on 19 points; Derby are 23rd on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.