Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
82%
UKRPremier League · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Arena Lviv
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st · 28 pts0–0FULL TIME
Zorya Luhansk
7th · 15 pts76% Shakhtar
15% Draw
8% Zorya
OUR PICK
Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Model probability 76% · fair odds
1.31
Expected goals
2.44 – 0.67
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.31X6.50212.07
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
55%
Double chance@1.09
1X
92%
Season stats
Shakhtar DonetskZorya Luhansk2.0Goals per game1.2
0.5Conceded per game1.3
2.55Points per game1.50
82%Win rate40%
17Goal difference-1
13Form, last 5 (pts)8
Shakhtar Donetsk form
WDLWH Dynamo Kyiv3–0
H Zorya Luhansk0–0
A Inter1–0
H Kolos Kovalivka2–1
Zorya Luhansk form
DDWWWH Kryvbas KR1–1
A Shakhtar Donetsk0–0
H Chornomorets2–1
A Livyi Bereh1–3
A Kolos Kovalivka1–2
Head to head
3
Shakhtar
2
Draw
0
Zorya
Oct 2026Shakhtar Donetsk – Zorya Luhansk0–0
Apr 2026Zorya Luhansk – Shakhtar Donetsk1–2
Sept 2025Shakhtar Donetsk – Zorya Luhansk1–0
May 2025Zorya Luhansk – Shakhtar Donetsk0–0
Nov 2024Shakhtar Donetsk – Zorya Luhansk3–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk11+1728
2Polessya10+1525
3FC Kharkiv9+1121
4Dynamo Kyiv9+519
5Karpaty10+916
6LNZ Cherkasy10+115
7Zorya Luhansk10-115
8Kolos Kovalivka9-111
9Chornomorets10-49
10Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10-49
Match preview
Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk clear favourites, giving them a 76% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.44 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0.67 for Zorya Luhansk), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 1st on 28 points; Zorya Luhansk are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.