Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Stamford Bridge
Shakhtar Donetsk
17th · 4 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Sporting CP
12th · 6 pts41% Shakhtar
24% Draw
35% Sporting
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.50
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.41X4.2422.86
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Shakhtar DonetskSporting CP1.3Goals per game2.3
1.0Conceded per game1.3
1.33Points per game2.00
33%Win rate67%
1Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Shakhtar Donetsk form
WDLWH Dynamo Kyiv3–0
H Zorya Luhansk0–0
A Inter1–0
H Kolos Kovalivka2–1
Sporting CP form
WWLLWA Casa Pia0–2
H Maritimo2–1
H Academico Viseu1–2
H Lask Linz2–3
A Lens0–2
Head to head
0
Shakhtar
0
Draw
0
Sporting
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Shakhtar Donetsk 41%, the draw 24%, Sporting CP 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.65 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1.50 for Sporting CP), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 17th on 4 points; Sporting CP are 12th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.